1st GUESS MAP HERE
video by 220am
The fact of the matter is I am playing catch-up to this because of the models. The data and models keep changing every few hours. Every time I try to get out a new update in a written format for you guys something else changes.!!!
There have been some major changes here with the 18z and 0z Weather models.
If you recall the primary restriction or inhibiting factor on the snow built up was the wet ground from the rains on Sunday and Sunday night plus the very warm ground and temperatures only around 32 degrees.
However, the new data shows temperature is dropping down to 29–30° by Monday morning in Central Virginia — including much of the Virginia Piedmont and as far west as Charlottesville and up north as Washington DC and Baltimore. This means that temperatures will be cold enough for the snow to begin to stick and accumulate. Undoubtedly the wet grounds and warm surface temperatures will still play a factor, but this is now looking to be a much bigger storm with a much larger precipitation shield.
Moreover, the event does NOT end by Monday midday from west to east. Instead, it looks like it lasts until almost Monday sunset especially in Central and Eastern Virginia. And the Delmarva
For this reason all the models are increasing the snow amount significantly. Again some of this is overdone because of the warm ground and the rainfall but we are looking at more snowfall with each New Model cycle as we are getting closer to the event. The 0z operational GFS is a fucking joke, Even though I WANT there to be 11.7" of snow in RIC its NOT going to happen and neither is 12.7" in CHO ( Charlottesville) and DC
NWS And TV stations are not picking up on this new data and they’re missing the trend.
Finally and most importantly this is the biggest change. The temperature is turned significantly colder Monday night and Tuesday Morning. The model data shows temperature is getting down into the change in the Shenandoah Valley and near 20 degrees in all of central eastern and Northern Virginia … low 20s in DC BAL central MD … mid-twenties in the interior portions of Hampton Roads and mid and upper 20s in Northern portions of North Carolina.
In other words any accumulating snow even if it’s just three or four wet slushy inches is now a MUCH bigger problem: Because the event will continue until the Sunset hours in most of the region… falling temperatures Monday night into Tuesday morning will cause any moisture on the ground freeze and the slush WILL freeze hard especially on secondary roads By Dawn Tuesday.
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