In presenting this early winter preview or ideas we need to lay down a few ground rules. First what I am going to talk about and say here should not in any way be considered a seasonal forecast. Making predictions about the winter in mid September is arguably the stupidest thing that anybody could ever do in the field of meteorology and seasonal forecasting. The only thing that is as stupid as making it winter forecast in mid- September is making a hurricane season forecast regarding possible landfalls in April …May …or …June. Tropical Cyclone activity is determined by sub…


RIGHT CLICK ON THIS LINK…. ****OPEN IN A NEW TAB *** ….TO HEAR THE AUDIO… YOU SICK TWISTED WEATHR FREAKS!!

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HOW DO WE ** KNOW ** THIS ?

Understanding why hurricane LARRY …which is going to become a category 4 hurricane …is no threat to the East Coast may seem like a bold statement to some. But it is the difference between meteorology and MODELOLOGY….. although in this case… the various weather models are in excellent agreement. Of course one could make the argument …”well you know things could change “…but not really. Not in this case. Let’s take a look and see what’s going on

As we all know IDA was a mighty powerful hurricane that transformed itself into a regular large East Coast LOW with a…


HURRICANE IDA HIGH PROBABLITY TO REACH CATEGORY 4

There is no doubt in my mind, based upon looking at the latest data, that recently upgraded hurricane IDA will achieve category 4 status at some point over the next 48 hours. There is still uncertainty as to whether it will be a category 4 when it makes landfall on the Central Louisiana coast but it will clearly become a category 4 hurricane. There is also a possibility that it could reach Category 5 status as well.

In addition this update shows that there is little chance that IDA will shift to…


UPDATE time for additional information about what is going on with topics and boy let me tell you something — it is getting extremely active and meteorologists are going to be working to the bone over the next 30 days. And what is even more ominous is that the upper air patterns in the western Atlantic Ocean and across North America show a pattern which is favorable for additional hurricane or tropical storm strikes in the Gulf of Mexico/ southeast US coast / and the Northeast US Coast. …


HENRI’s S TRACK SHIFTS SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE RIGHT; INLAND FLOODING INTO MTNS OF NJ …southeast NY ( the Catskills) western CT western Mass COULD BE SEVERE

In general there are no major changes with regard to the evening update for hurricane HENRI but there is some additional information which needs to be brought to your attention which may not be getting the focus that it needs to.

It s now a HIGH PROBABILITY that Hurricane HENRI, will impact along the Northeast US coast, from NYC to Boston this weekend. HENRI will likely be weakening at landfall but the track of HENRI, from south to NW will drive a much higher than normal storm tides INTO to coastal areas. In addition, the combination of the Full Moon…


HENRI TO HIT SE NEW ENGLAND… Eastern LONG ISLAND… ALL OF CT …NYC… Southeast NY.

Tropical storm HEMRI ….soon to be Hurricane HENRI is now a HIGH PROBABILITY to impact he Northeast US coast , from NYC to Boston this weekend. HENRI will likely be weakening at the time of landfall but the track of HENRI, from South to Northwest will drive a much higher than normal storm tides INTO to coastal areas.

In addition, the combination of the Full Moon and the numerous concave shapes of the coastal areas From New York City to Cape Cod and Boston Bay will also enhance the potential storm tide and will likely produce much more significant coastal…


At Midday HENRI continues to strengthen. It could become a hurricane by Friday. HENRI formed near Bermuda two days ago and has been drifting slowly westward. Meanwhile the remains of what once was tropical storm FRED is still bringing rain to upstate New York and portions of New England on Thursday morning and midday. The remains of FRED have interacted with a cold front which is pushing this way through the East Coast.

This cold front is going to turn HENRI to the north so it parallels the Middle Atlantic Coast during the next few days. As a result HENRI…


FRED’S RAINS COULD BE EXTREME
expect Heavy Flooding Heavy Erosions of Fields/ Roads in western NC/ southwest VA/ eastern WVA/ western VA/ western MD from late Tuesday into Wed evening

You need to be aware that the threat for extremely heavy rain coming late Tuesday into late Wednesday will cause widespread flooding in many areas — and not just locations which are prone to flooding. In the elevated terrain, rainfall amounts could become extreme with widespread erosion roads being washed out with whole fields being eroded or heavily damaged by extreme excessive rains falling on already saturated ground conditions.

The cause of these excessive rains is the tropical storm FRED which has made landfall on Florida Panhandle Coast. As WxRisk said last week , Fred did NOT reach Hurricane status…


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ELSA now in the southeast GEORGIA and remains a tropical storms (barely). As the system transforms from a tropical systems to coastal Low, it will intensify to some degree. Wind forecast have increased in eastern NC VA the Delmarva and southern NJ.

According to the late afternoon update from the Hurricane Center ELSA is still technically a tropical storm although that might be a bit generous. The current late Wednesday afternoon radar shows a decent looking but decaying tropical cyclone for an inland system in southeast Georgia. But it is difficult to find winds gusting over 39 mph in…

DT Wxrisk

Meteorologist ... Atheist.. Dyslexic ..Baseball.. Fat tail distributions ..Good Judgement Projection… Black Swans/ Taleb …Choas / non Linear Dynamics… ENTP

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