ABOUT MARCH 3-4MAJOR EASTERN US LOW — A Nor’easter and MAJOR Northeast US Snowstorm OR an Ohio Valley Super Bomb LOW?
The next system - the one for March 3–4 — s really interesting because it keeps jumping around with various possible solutions. Initially it looked like it was going to be March 2–3 with the initial cold front and LOW pressure developing on the cold front jumping to the coast. But that solution is now discarded by all the data.
After the February 28th LOW moves off the new England coast, temperatures will once again turn mild across the East Coast, the Ohio Valley and the Southeastern states. But a moderately strong cold front will move through the Midwest on the East Coast March 1–2 with areas of moderate rain in New England, the Middle Atlantic, and Southeastern states as the cold front moves through those regions. Then moderately strong HIGH pressure will move from Minnesota into the Great Lakes and southeast canada. The event for March 3rd and 4th is connected to the cold front because it is going to be the stalled cold front across the southern states where this new LOW pressure area is going to develop on March 2nd in eastern Texas, southeast Oklahoma, or perhaps Arkansas.
Back on February 23rd the initial models had very different solutions. For example, the operational European model showed a massive Midwest LOW pressure area with extreme intensity down to 959mb in central Illinois.
However, the operational GFS was much further to the east and showed a serious snowstorm threat for the central Appalachians into the northern Mid-Atlantic and interior New England.
But as the models began to detect the major amounts of blocking developing in the jet stream across Greenland and northeast Canada and the development of a strong closed upper LOW in southeast Canada — the 50/ 50 LOW -the large-scale global models began to shift. On Friday night and Saturday, the European model shifted the LOW much further to the south and east with heavy rain in the Deep South and the Mid-Atlantic region. But as the models began to detect the changing jet stream pattern, the European began to show a lot more snow on the 0z SATURDAY run for March 3–4 with heavy snow in western North Carolina, West Virginia, Maryland, Virginia, Delaware, southern New Jersey and up to the Pennsylvania Maryland border.
This trend has continued on the European model for 12z Saturday run and 0z Sunday runs showing a true Coastal storm or Nor’easter. The last two runs of the operational European model have the surface LOW a little further north — cutting across northern portions of North Carolina and Southeast Virginia as opposed to going straight off the North Carolina coast and out to sea.
This shifts the entire heavy snow area to the north so that there is significant snow on the last 2 European model runs that really hammers northern Virginia, West Virginia, western and central Maryland, Pennsylvania, New Jersey/ New York City, and southern New England. This somewhat more northerly track means that central and southern Virginia and North Carolina see all rain as well as the Delmarva and southern New jersey.
The European ensemble- EPS- generally supports the operational European model. Which is really good news if you live in the Northern portions of the Mid-Atlantic and into New England and you want to major snowstorm !!!
These next images show WHY the operational European models are showing Major northeast US I-95 snowstorms. Early on Saturday morning the main piece of energy can be seen in Arkansas on March 3rd. But as the system moves into North Carolina it weakens considerably and because the system does not gain any latitude early on Saturday morning, the European model was showing a snowstorm for the southern half of the Mid-Atlantic region but not for NUC/ NJ Pennsylvania New York State and New England.
But the 12z Saturday and 0z Sunday runs of the European model have the same piece of energy located further to the north on March 3rd. Instead of being located in Arkansas The last 2 runs of the European model has the southern energy in Tennessee and Kentucky. And it is now negatively tilted — aligned in the NW- SE orientation which means that it is undergoing rapid intensification as it approaches the coast. The result is a true Nor’easter and potential major East Coast winter snowstorm with additional significant accumulations in southern Indiana, the southern half of Ohio, northern portions of West Virginia and western Pennsylvania.
But now things get really interesting.
On February 24th and 25 many of the operational GFS models initially had the system close to the coast and showed the potential for heavy snow in and around the I-95 areas and especially in the interior portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England and in the mountains.
However, since early Saturday morning there has been a clear and dramatic trend of shifting the large and powerful intense LOW pressure area tracks much further to the West with extremely strong LOW passing west of the Appalachian mountains into the heart of the Midwest and the Ohio Valley. The result is a huge rainstorm for the East Coast with mild temperatures and the potential for a major snowstorm In the Ohio Valley, much of interior New England and northern New York State. If the operational GFS model is correct, there is a good chance for a major severe weather outbreak across the Tennessee Valley and portions of the Southeastern states on March 3rd.
Why are the European and the GFS models so different.?
The answers can be seen here. This map shows the early Sunday morning operational GFS model at 500 mb valid on the morning of March 3rd. The main piece of energy in the southern jet stream I have highlighted with a big black circle located in northern Texas and Oklahoma. The GFS model is phasing this piece of energy with the northern jet stream energy in Minnesota and Wisconsin. This causes the southern energy to develop an early negative tilt across Kentucky, Illinois, and Indiana which drives the main surface LOW deep into the Midwest and well to the west of the Appalachian mountains.
The operational European model is vastly different. Here we can see the main piece of energy again highlighted with the BLACK CIRCLE in the southern jet stream located across Texas and Oklahoma early on March 3rd. However, this system continues tracking in a more ENE direction cutting across Arkansas and Kentucky then into West Virginia. This forces the surface LOW much for the to the south and east and the result is a significant snowstorm for Ohio, West Virginia, and all of the big cities Interstate 95 from DC Metro to Boston as well as of course the mountains of New England and interior Mid-Atlantic regions.
The uncertainty gets worse here because the GFS Ensemble clearly supports the operational GFS model: a very large intense surface LOW that if correct would bring a Blizzard to the northern and western potions of the Ohio Valley Midwest and Great Lakes heavy rains o the entire East coast and severe weather to the Tenn Valley and SE states. In other words, the GFS ensemble also supports the idea of the main LOW tracking well inland and not on the coast.
MY VIEW AS OF SUNDAY MORNING -
I do not know what solution is going to be correct. If the MJO was already in Phase 8, I would be clearly leaning towards the European model and forecasting a significant if not major Northeast US snow form from northern Virginia to Maine including portions of Ohio and western Pennsylvania. But the data is clear the MJO will NOT be in Phase 8 on March 3–4 — it will be Phase 7 and Phase 7 presents a strong Ridge on the Southeast US Coast and the western Atlantic Ocean which is exactly what the operational GFS and the GFS ensembles are indicating. Phase 7 supports an Ohio Valley winter storm and not and East Coast storm.
The other variable of course is how blocking actually develops in northeastern Canada /Greenland (-NAO) and a large closed 500 LOW in southeast Canada. Both of these features are very strong on the European model and the European ensembles which is why those models continue to support the snowstorm scenario for the northern Mid-Atlantic and New England on March 3rd and 4th. But these features are not that strong on the operational GFS and the GFS ensembles and that is why those models support the Ohio Valley solution with heavy rain on the East Coast and severe weather such as hail and tornadoes for the Tennessee Valley and the Southeastern states on March 3rd and 4th.
Again at this point I just do not know.
And in Science it is OK to say I dont know right now. When will I know more? Probably after the FEB 28 New England winter storm.