ABOUT THURSDAY NIGHT FRIDAY a Moderate Mid Atlantic Southern New England Snowstorm is likely
After the major snowstorm which hit the Mid-Atlantic region and specifically Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, southern New Jersey, eastern Tennessee and eastern portions of West Virginia, the attention focuses on the next possible event which is looking a little stronger today than it did yesterday.
On Monday, the operational GFS model showed a weak area of LOW pressure that might bring light rain and snow showers to eastern Virginia and the Delmarva on January 7th. However, the European model on Monday showed something a bit more impressive with a moderate snowstorm affecting much of the Mid-Atlantic and New England.
The new data this morning and at the mid-day continues that Trend and shows a somewhat more organized and moderately stronger LOW pressure area coming out of Tennessee, tracking across western North Carolina and southeast portions of Virginia and then turning East off the coast. This kind of track would keep the heavy snows out of Pennsylvania, New York State, and northern New England and once again place much of the Mid-Atlantic region in the area most likely to see the “ best” snow.
The uncertainty has to do with the track of a LOW itself. Models on this Tuesday morning and mid-day have definitely shifted the system further to the south and east which is why the snow threat for central Virginia and Delmarva has increased. A track to the south and east means less warming at the mid levels of the atmosphere and a quicker change over from rain to snow in central and northeast Virginia and the Delmarva. This does look like a moderate snow event with at least a few inches — possibly as much as 6–7” in Southwest Virginia, all of the Shenandoah Valley, most of western and central Maryland, the eastern portions of West Virginia and continuing into southeastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey.
This is a fast-moving event and it would be difficult for anybody to get more than 6” inches of snow from this system given its speed. It is also significantly weaker and less intense then the system that hit on Sunday night and Monday. Behind the system, a new blast of cold air arrives but the cold HIGH pressure system will slide off the East coast on Saturday. Then the winds will become SW ahead of the next reinforcing strong cold front. This will bring rain on Sunday January 10 to the entire East Coast followed by another surge of normal or below normal temperatures for early next week