**ALERT** MAJOR SNOW & ICE EVENT LIKELY FOR MOST OF VA MD…. eastern WVA… DELMARVA STARTING WED PM LASTING INTO FRIDAY AM

This event has a good chance to bring the largest snow accumulations of the season to much of these areas along with the potential for significant ice and possible ice storm conditions in some portions of Virginia. The only area right now which is not appear to be impacted by this event will be Southeast Virginia / Hampton Roads.

Unlike the last several events WxRisk thinks this is not going to be an event which mainly impacts the Pennsylvania northern Maryland NJ NYC southern NY states and New England. (which was the case with January 28 February one1 and to a lesser degree with February 1).

This will be a long duration event. The key issue is the Arctic boundary which at the beginning of the event will be located to the north of the Pennsylvania Maryland border on Wednesday afternoon and evening.

The GFS /American model and the European model do NOT agree regarding the movement of arctic front Wednesday night and Thursday. The GFS model is slower to move the front further to the south so all of its significant snow and ice only impacts the northern third of Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey New York City and the northern half of West Virginia. The European model generally handles shallow cold air penetration from Pennsylvania New York into the Middle Atlantic region in a much more consistent and scientifically sound manner than the GFS model. So for this forecast we are going to rely upon the European model.

If it turns out that the European model is wrong and the GFS model is correct then most of the snow and ice will be significantly further to the north only impacting the northern 25% of Virginia Maryland Delaware and much of Pennsylvania New York and Southern New England once again.

So assuming that the European model is correct …..this is how the event plays out on Wednesday night into Friday morning

WEDNESDAY 1–7P pm Light to moderate snow will develop rapidly on Wednesday afternoon evening in Central and Eastern portions of West Virginia Western Maryland at into the Central and Northern portions of the Shenandoah Valley by 7 p.m. Wednesday.

WEDNESDAY 7P — THURSDAY 1AM
Lighter snow will spread east into southern half of Pennsylvania Baltimore DC the Delmarva and into central Virginia as far south as Staunton Charlottesville and Fredericksburg to Salisbury MD by 10 p.m. on Wednesday. The snow will continue across central and northern West Virginia the northern half of Virginia all of Maryland all of the Delmarva (north of Wallops Island ) during the overnight hours into Thursday .

THURSDAY 1A — 7A
By Thursday morning temperatures will still be slightly above 32 degrees in central Virginia and the Richmond Metro area as well as the Middle Peninsula and in southern Virginia Piedmont (Lynchburg) as well as Southwest Virginia ( Roanoke). The areas of Staunton Charlottesville over to Fredericksburg and Tappahannock will be in a snow sleet mix at 7 am. on Thursday. At this point the arctic cold front will begin to push southward as the cold air in the Great Lakes begins to drive into northern New York State and eastern Canada. Light to Moderate snow will be falling across the entire north half of Virginia, all of western / central MD, DC- BAL and the Delmarva north of Wallops Island.

THURSDAY 7A-1P
The snow Line will begin to sink south as the front moves south . The snow will pick up significantly in the northern half of Virginia into DC Metro, the eastern portions of West Virginia, and southern Maryland Thursday afternoon as the Arctic boundary get begins to push South. Temperatures will fall all day on Thursday in the Richmond /central Virginia area as well as Lynchburg, the southern Virginia Piedmont and southwest Virginia and sleet will begin to mix into the rain in Richmond metro . Northeast Virginia Lynchburg and Roanoke

THURSDAY 1P — 7P
Mixed precip will go over to snow and or snow and sleet in central Virginia / Richmond Metro area . Lynchburg and Lexington Roanoke metro stays mostly Sleet / freezing rain. Sleet and snow are likely in the interior portions of the Northern Neck and Middle Peninsula in Northeast Virginia. Heavy sow will fall in all of the Shenandoah Valley north of Lexington into central MD all of the Virginia central and northern Piedmont into DC and southern MD. Moderate snow is possible in the Delmarva

THURSDAY 7P — FRIDAY 1A
Heavy SNOW pounds the northern 2/3 of Virginia from Lexington to Powhatan to Ashland to Tappahannock and everything NORTH of that Line. There may be heavy snow in eastern third of West Virginia Moderate snow DC BAL and the Delmarva. There could be several hours of snow in the Richmond Metro area with heavy sleet and freezing rain in Petersburg over towards Williamsburg and heavy sleet and freezing rain in Lynchburg / the southern Virginia Piedmont from South Hill in South Boston / Hillsville. Roanoke and Lexington as well as Blacksburg could see a major freezing rain or sleet event during Thursday night into Friday morning with temperatures in the mid-20s. Significant power loss is a possibility in much of these areas where the heavy sleet and freezing rain accumulates and pulls down power lines. Heavy snow will continue across much of Central and Northern Virginia into Central Maryland. — — From Hagerstown and Frederick in Baltimore Southward into Ashland Virginia and from Martinsburg West Virginia Southward to Lexington .

FRIDAY 1A -7A

The event is still raging at 7AM Friday morning but is beginning to wind down in West Virginia and Southwest Virginia. There may be some sleet and freezing rain as far south as Greensboro North Carolina early Friday morning. Sleet freezing rain and snow in the Central Virginia Metro Richmond area into the Western portions of the middle Peninsula Northern Neck. The Delmarva is seeing heavy snow as is Southern New Jersey as well as Baltimore-Washington Southern Maryland the entire Central and Northern portions of Virginia and the northern half of the Shenandoah Valley.

After 7 a.m. Friday the event begins to wind down in southwest Virginia and eastern West Virginia. But it is still snowing in the Shenandoah valley, central and northern Virginia, into DC BAL, the Delmarva north of Wallops Island , and sleet/ freezing rain in Richmond to Lynchburg, and the southern Virginia Piedmont.

Meteorologist ... Atheist.. Dyslexic ..Baseball.. Fat tail distributions ..Good Judgement Projection… Black Swans/ Taleb …Choas / non Linear Dynamics… ENTP