EARLY 12/31 UPDATE ON JAN 4 and JAN 7. S.E.C.S. — Significant East Coast Snowstorm *** THREAT ***

If you have been following my frequent updates here on THIS Twitter page as well as the ones on the video and on the Facebook page then you know that for over a week WxRisk has been talking about two particular East Coast THREATS or possibilities — LOW pressure areas that form on the SE conus that COULD d become winter storms.

And as I stated in the last video the key is getting enough cold air into the Mid Atlantic region — and to a lessor degree southern New England. The two events that I have been focusing on have been the potential for significant low pressure development in the Southeast CONUS on JAN 4 and on JAN 7. For both of these systems, in a typical January, these LOW pressure areas would produce accumulating and possibly significant snowfall the the Middle Atlantic and New England.

But again we are NOT in a regular winter pattern — not yet. While it is true that intense LOW pressure areas can produce their own cold air, what generally happens with East Coast LOW pressure systems in the winter Is that there is an interaction between cold Canadian HIGH pressure that is usually located the Great Lakes /Northern New England/ Southwest Quebec Canada and the intensifying East Coast LOW pressure system. This interaction keeps surface winds out of the North on the coastal areas and reinforces the cold air so the precipitation stays as snow in the big cities of I-95. BUT…. this is premised on the idea that there is at least a normal amount of cold air in Great Lakes /Northern New England/ southwest Quebec Canada .

JAN 4 LOW — Only 24 hours ago most of the global models such as the Canadian the European and the GFS had a significant LOW pressure system coming out of the SE states and bringing rain to the NC VA MD DEL the southeast 3rd of PA / NY/ NYC / / Long Island and even into southern New England. The European and the GFS ensembles were a little colder than the operational runs so there is some uncertainty as to where the rain snow line might be and how far inland.

But starting on Saturday model cycles, all of the operational models changed course and now show ONLY a weak area of LOW pressure moving off the SE US Coast. In other words… there is no JAN 4 Coastal LOW.

BUT… the lack of the coastal LOW on JAN4 allows for a stronger reinforcing cold front from the northern Jet Stream to sweep through the Ohio Valley/ the Mid-Atlantic / and New England regions. This new surface of cold air drops temperatures significantly so the atmosphere is much colder as the January 7th event gets underway. SEE I IMAGE 1 ABOUT JAN 7. While idiot weather Weenies and other clowns continue to whine about no pattern change … temperatures across Canada continue to fall and the cold air continues to move deeper into the great lakes and New England.

IS JAN 7 A REAL SNOWSTORM THREAT?

the answer to this question is based upon two critical points. First that the JAN 4 LOW stays very weak and moves off the coast which allows much colder air from New England and the Great Lakes to come for the south. If tomorrow or the next day the weather models decide to bring back the JAN 4 LOW into a coastal system with rain and Mild temperatures then the January 7th bigger system is probably going to be impacted.

The second answer to this question has to do with the upper air map. This map is the operational GFS from 0z 12/3. This map clearly shows that while the Pacific side of North America is not at all favorable for a significant East Coast snowstorm… the Atlantic side is quite favorable. The large UPPER LOW in the jet stream in southeast Canada is the January 4th system that turns northward once it moves off the East Coast.

SEE IMAGE 2

Image 3 is the 0z GFS and image 4 is the CANADIAN.