First **POSSIBLE** significant snow of the season OCT 12–13 for ID MT WY UT COL

Folks .. there is a good possibility of the first significant snowfall the season in the western CONUS on October 12–13 in the elevated or mountainous areas of Idaho… Utah… western and central Colorado …much of Wyoming and a good portion of Montana. As is usually the case for mid-October snowfalls… this POSSIBLE event is likely to be an elevated terrain type of event but it does have the potential to put down significant snowfall in these areas with snow levels perhaps as low as 1500 feet.

The culprit or cause of this is a very deep persistent trough in the jet stream which has been slamming into the Gulf of Alaska the East Pacific and western North America for the past several days. You may have noticed the rainfall in Los Angeles during the football game on Sunday. this massive trough is bringing much-needed rain and Mountain snows throughout all of the western CONUS and a much earlier than normal arrival of autumn. This is very good news for the droughts in areas of the western third of the CONUS.

A very strong piece of energy in the jet stream will crash into the Central and Northern California on Friday and Saturday. This will produce a significant low pressure area for the Rockies but mostly rain.

However a much stronger and truly massive piece of energy coming out of the northern Jet Stream and western Canada will drop into CALF and NV and go Bonkers on Tuesday October 12 .. and has a good chance to produce an impressive snowstorm by the Central and Northern Rockies.

From there the system will track Northeast Across The Dakotas into Manitoba and Saskatchewan where it could bring another significant snowstorm to Those portions of the Canadian prairies on October 15.

As for the Central and Eastern CONUS… as I have been saying before (in THE NEXT 3 WEEKS Newsletter), the overall pattern remains quite mild and there is little chance of seeing any early kind of winter weather in the upper Plains… the Great Lakes …or northern New England before the end of the month

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DT Wxrisk

DT Wxrisk

Meteorologist ... Atheist.. Dyslexic ..Baseball.. Fat tail distributions ..Good Judgement Projection… Black Swans/ Taleb …Choas / non Linear Dynamics… ENTP