stardate …..who gives a shit ?

There are no big changes with the last call forecast map. The typical and all-too-common collapse of the snow area around the Richmond a Metro region has shown up on all of the short-range models during the past thirty-six hours. If anything this trend for no snow in and around Richmond with this particular storm has intensified in the last 18 hours. Some of the images below will show you how remarkably well to find this Gap in the snow Shield is with this particular storm. But anybody in the Mid-Atlantic knows that this has been a problem for Richmond for many years.

In fact it has recently been brought to my attention that in the last 3 years The Weather Service offices in Wakefield have issued a total of 9 winter storm watches including this one. And all 9 of them have failed to verify (BUSTED). That is Far and away the worst record in the country with regards to verified winter storm watches. (yes NWS actually keeps track of this).

It is quite likely that by February 1st the seasonal snow map will show the entire country north of Interstate 20 which runs from South Carolina to Atlanta to Little Rock Arkansas and all of the CONUS east of Mississippi River being, having above normal snowfall except for one location — that would be Richmond Virginia.

The snow amounts have increased by a couple of inches in the Shenandoah Valley and the central and northern portions of the Virginia Piedmont and possibly into the Washington DC metro area. Only 18 and 24 hours ago leave short-range models were showing little snow in these areas with most amounts under 1.5 inches. Admittedly it’s not that much of a big deal to go from 1.5 to 3.5 inches but that does cross a threshold for a lot of snowplow operations.

Hampton Roads continues to be in line to receive a significant snowfall for that area. A lot of the data has 6 to 8 inch snows into the far southern tip of the Delmarva, not far from the North Shores of Norfolk and Virginia Beach. The 8 inch snow line is very close to the western side of the Chesapeake Bay in eastern Virginia. Although the precipitation will start off as rain in portions of Hampton Roads and Northeastern North Carolina it will change over to snow and it will snow hard through Saturday morning. I see no reason to change the 4 to 8 inch snow area that I have in place for Hampton Roads and the Far Eastern portions of Virginia along the bay.

There is some uncertainty as to how far into the New Jersey coast and Long Island the 12 inch snow line is going to advance. Some models have the 12 inch snow line into New York City, central New Jersey, and as far inland as Dover Delaware. Given the higher snow ratios in the colder air, in those areas, even an 8-inch snow amount might end up as around 10 or 11 inch. For this reason, I have pushed the 8 inch snow line into Philadelphia and the northwest and north of New York City end into further Western Massachusetts and central New Hampshire.

The 12 to 18 inch snow band which I have touching Coastal New Jersey as well as Eastern Long Island and Southeast New England might actually be underdone especially in southeast New England.



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DT Wxrisk

DT Wxrisk


Meteorologist ... Atheist.. Dyslexic ..Baseball.. Fat tail distributions ..Good Judgement Projection… Black Swans/ Taleb …Choas / non Linear Dynamics… ENTP