East Coast winter storms are divided into several different types. Those of you who are weather savvy may know these different classifications. Basically, there are 3 types of East Coast winter storms. The first type referred to as a “MILLER A” type of East coast Winter storm. The MILLER A type features Low-pressure area coming out of the Gulf of Mexico and moving along the Southeast US coast, then up the Eastern seaboard. As a general rule, these are easier to track and forecast and usually have the most snow over the largest area.
The second type of East Coast winter storm is referred to as a “MILLER B” . This is the kind of winter storm where the Low-pressure area moves into the Ohio Valley, then it dies as a new Low reforms off the coast. That is exactly what has happened with this recent system of Jan 31-Feb 1. The Miller B East Coast winter storm types are very tricky to forecast, because it makes a huge difference in how strong the Primary LOW in KY and OH and where the coastal LOW forms. Sometimes the LOW will re-form off of the southeast Virginia Coast, sometimes off of the Delmarva, and other times off of Long Island, NY. The position of the coastal LOW is critically important as to which areas will see the big snows after the initial burst.
The third type is the MILLER A-B East coast Winter storm. The MILLER A-B Est coast type features a main southern LOW but with a weak secondary LOW in TN KY and/ or OH. The MILLER A — B often have the Main Low tracking right along the coast which implies with a bias for best snows to fall well inland.
The fourth type is called the ”MILLER C” type of East Coast winter storm which features LOW pressure that moves off the southeast CONUS coast passing close to Cape Hatteras. The Miller C East Coast winter storm impacts mostly the Carolinas, Virginia, West Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware, and does not impact Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, or New England.
The reason why I am mentioning these different types of winter storms is so that you understand which ones are easy to forecast and which ones are harder. And from the period JAN 31 to FEB 15 we are likely to see an example of all 4 types. The system that has finally ended ( JAN31 — FEB 1 ) is classic MILLER B type East coast winter storm .
The next event appears (at this point ) to be a Classic textbook example of a MILLER A-B. The event FEB 11–12 seems to be a MILLER A type East coast winter storm
A strong ARCTIC cold front is going to sweep through Midwest and into East coast and Upper South on Friday FEB 5. Southwest winds ahead of the front will bring up mild — ish so all the precip in Mid Atlantic and New England will fall as rain.
The Arctic cold front will stall across the Deep South FEB 4–5. Saturday min temps will be in the Teens & single digits in ILL IND OH and western PA … and in the Low to Mid 20s in VA WVA MD DEL into southeast PA NJ. In TN and NC they will be in the 26–29 degree range.
The KEY POINT for the Middle Atlantic with regard to FEB 7 is how much cold air gets into MD VA DEL NJ on Saturday FEB 6? This is CRITICAL with regard to figuring the Low track on Sunday along with precip type.
The LOW will form on the stalled front in AL GA but data suggests that there may be a weak secondary Low in TN that could delay DEEP cold air getting into VA MD DEL NC NJ.
The air mass behind the FEB 5 arctic cold front is an ARCTIC air mass. The creates problems for the operational GFS and GFS ensembles since these models ALWAYS overwhelm any southern jet stream activity energy. Hence GFS solution which is well” goofy”:. Because the GFS model once again only “sees” the energy in the Polar Jet and it misses “ seeing” the energy in the southern jet.. the GFS Model shows two surfaces Lows that are far apart and never merge into one organized well developed coast Low on FEB 7.
In other words IGNORE the GFS Model until say Thursday PM.
The ECMWF (Euro) is VERY consistent and has been since Sunday. The model develops a significant Coastal Low in GA that races from GA to Maine and intensifies rapidly. Right Now the Euro does show a weak secondary Low in TN and OH (MILLER A-B) so the track of Main coastal Low coming up from GA tracks ON the coast — Fayetteville / Norfolk/ Ocean city . IF correct” — IF — the Sunday FEB 7 storm brings all rain for central eastern NC … the southeast third of VA… southern half Delmarva… southeast 25% of NJ. Central VA (Richmond to Freddysburg) would some snow then sleet then rain. The best or heaviest snow would fall in the northwest third of NC… all of VA Piedmont ….all of the Shenandoah valley … DC and BAL… western / central MD…. eastern WVA .. and central / eastern PA northern NJ /NYC … and all of New England (something like 6–12”.)
All the being said a shift of 50 miles to the east would have huge implications for RIC and northeast VA .
The after FEB 7 Winter storm, the ARCTIC air mass drives into the Mid Atlantic / Tenn valley/ Deep South. There are strong indications of other Low forms on the stalled front in LA. This one Looks massive and could be a pure MILLER A Type East coast winter storm or Type Miller C — which would be great news for Central/ eastern NC central and southeast VA and perhaps the Delmarva
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