MINOR SLEET and/or FREEZING RAIN Wednesday for the Shenandoah Valley / northwest 25% of VA Central MD / Western MD/ Eastern WV
MODERATE SNOW ICE EVENT FOR MOST OF NEW ENGLAND NY STATE (except NYC) northern PA (North of I-80)
As we talked about in earlier forecasts and statements, a significant powerful LOW pressure system developing in Texas and Louisiana on Tuesday will track in the northeast direction cutting across western Tennessee, central Kentucky then into Ohio on Wednesday morning through the midday hours. This LOW pressure area will bring heavy snow to northern Arkansas, much of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio into Michigan. However, like so many of the other previous LOW pressure areas this winter, this system on Wednesday is going to stay west of the Appalachian Mountains. By Wednesday evening the LOW pressure area will be located near Buffalo and the eastern Great Lakes.
This kind of track means that the precipitation will be mostly rain for the Middle Atlantic region as well as the southeastern states. In the interior portions of the Middle Atlantic region the temperatures will be cold enough to support sleet and freezing rain Wednesday morning through the midday hours. If there was a large Arctic HIGH pressure system located in Quebec Canada on Wednesday, areas such as the Shenandoah Valley, the eastern panhandle of West Virginia, western and central Maryland, and south central Pennsylvania could see a significant ice storm. However, there is no large cold HIGH located in Quebec and strong south winds will blast out the low level cold air Wednesday morning and midday in these areas. As a result, temperatures will warm slowly but steadily Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening so that the sleet and freezing rain in the Shenandoah Valley, western and central Maryland and the eastern panhandle of Virginia will change over to all rain during the afternoon hours.
In central and eastern Virginia, the Delmarva, North Carolina, and southern New Jersey the rain will be significant and at times heavy. All the precipitation will end from west to east on Thursday morning and sunshine should return by midday in most areas of the Middle Atlantic region. This image shows the possible freezing rain build up based upon the latest short-range high-resolution models. IF the overnight temperatures during early Wednesday morning were colder the freezing rain and icing problem could be significant in the Shenandoah Valley, western Maryland, interior central Pennsylvania and the eastern panhandle of West Virginia. But as you can see, the min surface temperatures on Wednesday 6:00 am before the precipitation starts will only be around 30° in most areas. By noon on Wednesday temperatures throughout the valley as well as eastern Virginia Panhandle and central Maryland will likely reach 34 to 35°.
Further north, the cold air will be deeper and harder to dislodge and as a result significant snow is likely in much of Pennsylvania, northwest New Jersey, New York state and most of New England. In these areas several inches of snow may accumulate before the precipitation mixes with sleet and then changes to freezing rain Wednesday evening. During the overnight hours on Wednesday mild air will still surge in from the coast and the rain/ snow/ sleet line will push as far north as southern New Hampshire, Vermont, and central New York State. Further north, the cold air will be deeper and harder to dislodge and as a result significant snow is likely in much of Pennsylvania, northwest New Jersey, New York state and most of New England. In these areas several inches of snowmay accumulate before the precipitation mixes with sleet and then changes to freezing rain Wednesday evening. During the overnight hours on Wednesday mild air will still surge in from the coast and the rain/ snow/ sleet line will push as far north as southern New Hampshire, Vermont,and central New York State.
