After you look at some of these images You can report your own conditions here.
IMAGE #1 shows the movement of the radar from 250 this afternoon And 5:00 p.m. on Friday with a focus on eastern North Carolina and Eastern Virginia as well as the southern Delmarva. notice in this first image I have some black lines drawn in which show gaps in the rain shield. This is very common with tropical Cyclones as they represent feeder bands so what happens is that the winds really pick up when the rains come in and then when the band moves through and the rains become fairly light the winds drop off.
IMAGE #2 shows actual conditions as of 500 pm long Central and Eastern portions of North Carolina and Virginia . I have drawn the approximate position of the surface LOW based upon the pressure and the wind directions. Notice that we are having wind gusts up to 65 mph or 56 knots at two different locations which give us a really good idea of how strong the system is becoming.
Since the tropical storm is not moving very rapidly it is possible it could gain just enough strength to reach bare minimum threshold criteria for hurricane.
Indeed. the Recon report just before 5:00 EDT found a peak surface wind gust of 70 knots and a second reading of pressure at around 982 . Right now the system is clearly more tropical than it is Nor’easter but the Eastern side of the system does not have a lot of convection associated with it. the Deep convection is all on the western half of the system. SEE IMAGE #3
Here is the latest projection from NHC/ NWS for storm surge with the intensifying tropical storm. The yellow area in the River inlets and the Bays near the ocean it will be see additional storm surge between 2 to 4 ft such as locations in the lower Chesapeake Bay the Albemarle and Pamlico sounds.
WINDS INLAND .
The 18z 3km NAM has corrected itself from the ridiculous solution that the previous NAM model showed at 12z. This new run …the 18z — takes OPHELIA core or low-level center into Jacksonville NC around 10:00 am on Saturday. This map shows the core of the system with the PURPLE line around CENTER. Notice winds gusting over 50 MPH throughout much of Central North Carolina into portions of central southern and NE Virginia into the Chesapeake bay. In fact this model actually has wind gusts to 60 mph in Raleigh and Greensboro.
By 6:00 p.m. on Saturday the core or low level center of the tropical storm now just a large powerful regular LOW pressure area will be located on top of Richmond VA
By 6am Sunday the low-level center of the tropical storm will be located near Baltimore or Annapolis.
Total rainfall will be 3 to 6 inches in southern New Jersey, the southern Delmarva, eastern Maryland , Hampton Roads and the eastern third of NC mainly east of Raleigh as well as the southeast NC where OPHELIA comes ashore. However once you cross Interstate 95 the rainfall amounts drop off. some of the models are now keeping areas such as Raleigh Lexington and Staunton seeing very little rainfall.
The dry areas of North Carolina and Virginia Piedmont will see rain from this and some areas will see up to 2 inches other areas only 0.5 inches some locations such as Roanoke d Blacksburg Lexington Martinsville and Hickory North Carolina. Are right on the edge. There is considerable uncertainty as to how much rain these areas are going to see. The rainfall bust potential here is quite High