SHORT RANGE MODELS PLAYING UP THURS SNOW IN MD DEL VA
As screwy as I know this sounds I have to put out an ALERT to let you know that there is likely to be a band of moderate to even heavy snow for 3 to 6 hours Thursday morning through the afternoon to Sunset with the approaching arctic cold front as it drives from north to south during the day.
All of the high-resolution short range weather models have shown a big increase in the snow output this evening as the cold front comes south. Earlier data showed that the shield of snow would fall apart when it reached Central Virginia and the Richmond Metro area as well as the middle Peninsula the Northern neck and Southeast Virginia.
The new data does not show that weakening. In fact, it shows the snow band e strengthening south of Washington DC in the Richmond to Fredericksburg area. In addition, some of the data suggests the front slows down as it moves into central and south central Virginia and across the Delmarva. The slowing of the cold front with the moderate snow causes the numbers to go up in these areas. For this reason, all of the TV stations at 11 in Central Virginia the southern Delmarva Salisbury area and Southeastern Virginia have increased their snow output for Thursday
I know after what we have seen over the last 24 hours many of you are viewing this with skepticism. However these high range short-range models are the same data that the Storm Prediction Center uses to forecast in all kinds of severe weather such as downburst hail tornadoes extremely heavy rain — . these models are very good and you should not ignore them.
This image from the HRRR model shows the total snow output from the cold front during the next 24 hours.
This is the 24 hours snowfall forecast from the 0z 3km NAM
This map shows the overall situation as of noon on Thursday. The dark blue colors represent moderate snow which can be found across southern New Jersey the northern Delmarva into Southern Maryland D.C Baltimore and northern Virginia.
This next image shows the same thing but it is valid as of 5 p.m. and you can see the moderate snow band is in the southern Delmarva across the Middle Peninsula Northern Neck into Central Virginia end chords Farmville and Martinsville.
Just to give you an idea of how heavy the snow band may be tomorrow morning and midday… this image shows the radar Estimate as of 8 a.m. on Thursday. The dark blue represents heavy snow and you can see that it’s snowing quite heavily in Northern Virginia SC Baltimore with moderate snow into the northern Shenandoah Valley at Central Maryland in Southeastern Pennsylvania.
At 11 a.m. Thursday the snow is ended in the northern Shenandoah Valley and is about to end in Baltimore and DC but moderate snow ahs developed across Central Virginia from Fredericksburg to Richmond into Southern Maryland the central Delmarva and the Northern Neck and it’s changed over to snow in Farmville.
This images is the radar representation at 3 p.m. and you can see extremely heavy snow from Richmond to Petersburg almost down to Emporia covering all of the Northern Neck Middle Peninsula and Southern Delmarva and extending out into South Hill South Boston Nottoway Farmville and Lynchburg
Finally by 6 p.m. the snow is still continuing in Richmond and points south and east with heavy snow now in Roanoke Rapids and along the virginia-north Carolina border just to the north of Greensboro.
the thing that I am most worried about is that the snow is going to come down heavy and it will freeze up on the roads as the temperatures crash.