Simplified Wxrisk.com PRELIMINARY Winter 2023–24 forecast

I know that WxRisk Winter forecast is like 59 pages, and it is really long (even though a lot of it is just images and maps). I suppose I get a little carried away with my own self-importance sometimes. You see I love to examine all the evidence including and especially for things that other people overlook.

That is kind of my wheelhouse — looking at stuff that other people don’t see, or don't look at, or don't think about. Hence one of my favorite axioms: When everyone is thinking the same… someone isn’t thinking …George S Patton.

The basic thesis of WxRisk PRELIMINARY Winter forecast is this:

The Midwest and the East Coast have seen a serious snow drought for the past 3 years. The snow drought has been caused by a 3 year long La Nina event. La Nina events usually bring below normal snowfall to New England, the Middle Atlantic, much of the Midwest and the Upper South. Even worse is that a second year of La Nina seems to increase the pattern that produces below normal snowfall. And a third year of La Nina iIis even more restrictive for snowfall.

In other words, three Winters in a row of La Nina are always going to suck if you like snow and cold east of the Mississippi River.

Here is the good news. La Nina has ended — absolutely dead bang ended Currently we have a strong El Nino event underway across the equatorial Pacific mainly centered off the coast of Peru.

The determining Factor as to how strong the El Nino is going to be is based upon a critical region along the El Nino area on the equatorial Pacific. This region is known as ENSO 3.4

Since the summer many of the climate models have been forecasting a super strong El Nino.

The term SUPER STRONG EL NINO refers to when ENSO region 3.4 goes above +2.0C and stays that way through the heart of the winter.

Many but not all of the winter forecasters are based on the idea of a SUPER STRONG El Nino lasting into FEB 2024.

We now have El Nino data all the way back to 1870.

There have been six SUPER STRONG El Nino since 1870–1877–78, 1888–89, 1972–73, 1982–83, 1997–98, & 2015–16.

Every one of those Winters featured rather mild conditions and below normal snowfall. However, 5 of those 6 SUPER STRONG El Niño events featured 1 but only 1 — big gargantuan snowstorm in the Northeast.US.

So… IF…IF…. This winter does feature a SUPER STRONG El Nino that last all winter then it is likely to be wet and mild BUT with a high % chance of one really BIG snowstorm in the Midwest and the Northeast (see winter 2015–16, 1998–98, 1982–83) . But in the overall sense a super strong El Nino means wet and mild.

All El Nino events, no matter what intensity or category, produce an active southern jet stream. In other words … expect a LOT of precipitation that feature LOW pressure areas come out of the lower Plains and the Deep South and bring much above normal precipitation across the Deep South, Tennessee Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, and a good portion of New England. If temperatures are cold enough then this can result in a wintry pattern in many of these areas.

The WxRisk winter forecast is based upon two KEY points.

1 The key point to my winter forecast is that my assertion that this strong El Nino is not acting the ** normal way** that a El Nino should be acting. We look at the evidence currently in the atmosphere as well as what was going on during this past summer. (the Midwest drought and VERY active Hurricane season).

I am not saying there is no strong El Nino. I am saying that it is not acting normal.

2. The recent Trend in the climate models show that the strong El Nino which has developed in mid-October will weaken in December going into January and weaken at a fairly rapid pace from January through March.

Suppose the El Nino stays at STRONG level/ criteria? (the sea surface temperature anomalies in ENSO region 3.4 is in the range of +1.5 to +2.0C).

This changes things significantly because El Nino events of lesser intensity allow for a lot more other factors to become important for the winter. Of these 11 moderate El Nino Winters…. 1896–97, 1899–00, 1902–03, 1918–19, 1930–31, 1940–41, 1957–58, 1965–66, 1987–88, 1991–92, 2009–10…

several of them featured above average snowfall for Eastern third of the CONUS: 1896–97 1899–1900 1940–41 1957–68 1965–66 1987–88 and 2009–10.

I also look at other things such as the QBO as they relate to things like the Polar Vortex and blocking patterns, which help produce sustained cold wintery patterns.

I looked at the climate models which are actually pretty bullish on winter weather for a change for the eastern CONUS.

NOW WHAT?

Now we look forward to snow build-up of snow cover in Siberia and the new climate models when they come out during the first week of November.

Two other points. First don’t be surprised if December 2023 in the eastern CONUS ends up being fairly mild. Not only is this a common occurrence in El Nino Winters for December but it is also common with the recent warming of the planet. On the other hand, we have rapidly reached the point where March has really become a continuation of February… with the spring season not really kicking in until the last week of March or beginning of April.

Finally — keep in mind that because of the prolonged snow drought during the past 3 years …IF and when an ordinary garden variety snowstorm actually shows up… whether it’s December or January or February… the hype and hysteria as well as people reacting on social media will be absolute bonkers. An ordinary 2–4 inch or 4-to-8-inch snowstorm is going to be viewed as the biggest story since the volcanic eruption of Krakatoa.