UPDATE FOR SATURDAY 4/29 and SUNDAY 4/30.. rainstorm #2 .. FOR NC/ VA/ MD / WV/ DEL southern NJ southeast PA
Since we are getting Deluge with questions and comments and concerns about what is or is not going to happen on Saturday and Sunday… even though we have covered this extensively .. new information and the overall demand for an update require that we give an update.
IMAGE #1 shows the estimated rainfall in the last 24 hours ending as of 3:00 pm EDT. This is PRELIMINARY and not official so keep that in mind but the data here is of fairly good quality. As you can see from the scale at the top of the image the dark yellow color is 1.5 to 2 inches. The TAN color = 2.0 -2.5 inches … the ORANGE color = 2.5 to 3.0 inches. Of course in many areas it is still raining especially in eastern and northern VA …MD…DEL… southeast PA …southern NJ.
IMAGE #2 shows the radar as of 1530 hrs Friday. The heaviest rains as forecasted have pushed up into Washington DC/ Baltimore.. central Md .. central and northern DEL …southeast PA and …southern NJ. Much of central and southern VA and NC appears to be rain free on the radar and on the surface maps. But there are residual lingering showers and thunderstorms in northwest NC just to the north of Hickory and out to the west of Roanoke in southwest VA and southeast 3rd of WV.
This image represents what the rainfall and radar might look like at 10 PM. Notice that there are areas of light to moderate rain in central and NC… southwest VA and rain and drizzle across the Washington DC Baltimore Metro areas into central MD the Delmarva …all of southeast PA… much of NJ and in the Northern Neck region of VA.
By 8AM Saturday most of VA, NC, WV, MD appear to be rain free. There is still moderate to Heavy rain going on in Delaware and the lower MD Eastern Shore …eastern PA (including Philly metro area and most of NJ/ NYC.
As we have stated for the past 2 days most of Saturday looks rain free south of the PA Turnpike down to the Carolinas and out into WV and eastern KY.
There may be some breaks of sunshine so Saturday might not be a bad day. The ground is going to be really wet and Soggy so keep that in mind because the rainfall amounts have been impressive. but Saturday is clearly going to be the best of two days of the weekend. The second system however will be developing in the Gulf Coast states and the Southeast region on Saturday morning.
This Image has two maps. The one on the left represents what the surface map will probably look like with precipitation and the cold front drawn in at 5:00 am Sunday for the eastern half of the country. The image on the right is focused on the Middle Atlantic region as of 5:00 am Sunday. It shows moderate to heavy rain in all of western NC pushing up into the southern VA Piedmont and southwest VA.
The rain will advance very quickly to the NE — by 8 am Sunday everybody in VA, western and central NC… and the eastern third of WV and western MD will be getting heavy rain. Now the model has some gaps in the rain shield in south central VAa and central NC but I don’t know why this particular model is showing gaps in the rain shield at 8 am Sunday in these areas so that may be bogus. The rain has not yet reached Hampton Roads or Washington DC by 8:00 am on Sunday but it will shortly.
This image is valid 2:00 pm Sunday. I have drawn in a thick black line to show you the western edge of the rain by 2:00 pm. Sunday the rain has ended in all of Southwest VA and western NC and most of WV. East of the Black line it is raining like hell in central PA… all of MD… most of Virginia and central /eastern NC. Again this particular short range model has these gaps in the rain shield in and around the Richmond Fredericksburg and around Raleigh — Emporia. I don’t know why the model is doing this. and again it seems bogus to me.
This image shows the short range model depiction of surface winds. As of 3–4 pm Sunday areas east of Interstate 95 — the eastern third of of NC… the eastern 3rd of VA ..the Delmarva up into southern NJ have a good chance of seeing wind gusts up to 45 or 50 mph. West of Interstate 95 the friction of the landmass plus being further away from the main low pressure area will keep the winds in the 15–25 mph range.
By 6:00 p.m. on Sunday we can see that the heavy rain line is approaching I-95. The rain will have ended in all the areas to the west of the thick black line in Virginia and NC but there still will be scattered rain showers in OH …western PA and the northern half of WV due to atmospheric instability.
By 8:00 pm Sunday this image gives a nice Regional shot of what the Eastern US is going to look like. The primary LOW is still located in the eastern Great Lakes and the secondary LOW is over New Jersey and southeast PA. The heavy rain will continue in New England and eastern NY state into Monday morning.
TOTAL RAINFALL for the second event from RGEM Model, and the EURO.
