DT Wxrisk
3 min readJun 26, 2023

UPDATE ON MONDAYS STORM THREAT — From SPC/ NWS
AND ARRIVAL TIMES

The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the threat to level 3 which is ENHANCED ( in case you don’t know severe weather threats are rated from 1 to 5 with 5 being the worst).

The second image shows SPC’s Evaluation of the Tornado/ Hail/ High wind threats. According to SPC only around 2% of thunderstorms might have a tornado but the hail threat is about 15% and the strong winds over 55mph is about 30%.

Image #3 gives you an expectation of start times if you are east of the mountains. What this means is that if you are in Western ….Western Pennsylvania ….West Virginia… Southwest Virginia… the Shenandoah Valley and the Western North Carolina …you are not going to see any big storms on Monday during the midday hours. The reason for this is that the storms move into these areas during the morning hours when the temperatures are still rather cool and the daytime heating has not yet caused the atmosphere to become unstable.

In this particular case the arrival of the cold front EAST of the mountains in Central and Eastern Virginia … central and eastern Maryland and eastern North Carolina will occur at the maximum daytime Heating.

*** HOW TO PREPARE *** — These are not tornadic thunderstorms. They will be strong and violent with strong winds and hail but for the most part this does not look like a tornado thing. The time frame I have presented here is someone of great confidence.

IF you are traveling on the major roads or interstates when the thunderstorms hit… they will be nasty because the rains will come down hard, ground are saturated so the water will build up the roads. There will be hail and strong and numerous accidents.

If you are trying to make it home in time to pick up someone get to a meeting feature kids or what have you during the arrival time of these storms you should expect delays and problems. This means you Have to make backup plans ok?

Make sure you and your loved ones… family and friends …and children can coordinate and be in touch with each other and yourself.

You should download any of the free radar weather apps because that will help you get through these storms and they are useful to have.

If at home or at work and you can watch local weather or The Weather Channel …you should do that. And of course I will be providing updates all during the afternoon and evening hours.

Once last point if you are WEST of the black line you don’t have anything to worry about. — unless of course you are unable to find your location in North Carolina Virginia West Virginia Maryland or Pennsylvania on a map. In that case you should probably not vote and stop fornicating.

DT Wxrisk

Meteorologist ... Atheist.. Dyslexic ..Baseball.. Fat tail distributions ..Good Judgement Projection… Black Swans/ Taleb …Choas / non Linear Dynamics… ENTP