Lots to talk about and things are super busy. Not only do I have to deal with a complex Nor’easter but I have to finish the winter forecast and then I have to deal with this Nor’easter and new snow clients and new snow contracts and well things are just busy.
Fun but busy.
Okay it is time to talk about the Nor’easter for this weekend. Some things have changed which of course is going to happen when you start talking about events several days out. One comment that I get from some people from time to time is — — “if you are not really certain and things change, then why are you talking about it 5 days or 7 days out?”
That is a fair question, but my perspective has to do with what I think my job is as a meteorologist. Weather has variables and things are going to change. I love that about this particular Science. As a operational meteorologist I think it is our job to get information to people and businesses and organizations that need it. I am not afraid of changing the forecast.
I am not **afraid ** of being wrong.
I know in the 21st century this is going to come as a shock as some people out there but really it is NOT about me. It is about getting information to you or your company or your organization. Complicating this is that a significant portion of America is scientifically illiterate. They think if you change the forecast because of new information …it means you don’t know what you are doing.
To the contrary … the opposite is the case. If you keep the same forecast despite the new information or if you ignore the new information THAT is what indicates, you don’t know what you are doing.
WHAT HAS CHANGED:
One of the reasons I went so aggressive with this system on Sunday and Monday was because this was going to be a long duration very slow moving deep intense LOW. This LOW is going to be quite strong as it moves through the Midwest and then when it jumps over the mountains and reforms over the Appalachian Mountains to the Virginia Maryland Coast… it would bomb out and move very slowly off the coast prolonging the moderate to heavy rain and the wind.
That sequence of events is still going to happen, but we are now looking at two separate LOW pressure systems.
The first LOW is the main event. It will impact the Midwest on Friday/ Friday night/ into Saturday morning. This system will jump over the mountains and reform on the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Saturday. Rain will spread into the Middle Atlantic and New England Saturday/ Saturday night/ into Sunday.
BUT …… there may be a second or baby LOW or upper air disturbance that will bring occasional showers and periods of light rain to portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England Monday /Monday night/ into Tuesday.
FRIDAY:
Friday will be sunny and dry in the New England region and the Midland to start the day. clouds will begin to increase from west to east in the afternoon and the evening hours. in the Midwest there will be widespread heavy rain in Minnesota Iowa Wisconsin Illinois Indiana and Michigan Friday and Friday night.
SATURDAY
The Midwest LOW will begin to weaken Friday night as it moves into IND/ OH and secondary LOW will develop on the Carolina coast. Moderate rain will move into central and eastern NC, much of VA, WV, WV, MD , DEL. PA, and NJ during the day on Saturday.
SATURDAY NIGHT — the second LOW in the Carolinas will rapidly intensify and become a nor’easter by dawn on Sunday morning. The winds will increase on the coast and the rain will become heavy from eastern VA, into southern New England. However, the rain will have ended Saturday night in WV, the western half of VA, and most of NC.
The biggest change in the forecast has to do with what happens on Sunday morning. initially it seemed that the Nor’easter was going to linger off the NJ / New England coast until Monday keeping the rain and wind in place along the coast from Boston to Washington DC. BUT… the new information takes the LOW steadily eastward away from the coast so that it does not stall / linger. This reduces the rainfall amount significantly in southern NY state and southern New England.
Indeed, based upon the current information it looks like the heaviest rain from the system is going to fall across PA, NJ, eastern MD, DEL and eastern VA.
SUNDAY
Sunday will see improved conditions because like I mentioned, the coastal LOW Nor’easter is moving faster away from the coast and into the western Atlantic Ocean. Wind will gust up to 25 or 30 MPH across the Middle Atlantic and New England and there will be several areas of scattered showers especially across the mountain or elevated Terrain of NY, PA, western MD, WV, southwest VA, the Shenandoah Valley and western NC.
MONDAY
One of the reasons why this system originally looked like a slow -moving classic Nor’easter that would stall off the New England coast for 36 to 48 hours on Sunday and Monday was that a second piece of energy was going to merge with the coastal storm and cause the coastal low to stall and hence become a nor’easter.
That second piece of energy still there BUT it is coming in later which is why the LOW on Sunday is going to move more rapidly out to sea and not stall. However, the second piece of energy is still fairly vigorous, and it will bring occasional scattered showers on Monday and Tuesday to both the Mid-Atlantic and New England regions.