WED UPDATE ON POSSIBLE SNOW IN CENTRAL/ EASTERN VIRIGINA… NE NC — FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
I‘ve seen better days
I’ve been the star of many plays
I’ve seen better days
(And the bottom drops out)
First I will talk about what’s going to happen on Thursday with the arctic cold front. It is going to drop 1 to 2 inches of snow in a band running from Southeastern Massachusetts to CT, Long Island NYC, most of NJ, southeast PA, to BAL DC, and into north central Virginia. But by the time the front reaches central Virginia / the Richmond Metro area and eastern Virginia, the precipitation Shield will have fallen apart. I know there are models which are dropping some snow in the Richmond Metro area of 1 to 2 inches but I think that is complete crap. The other problem is that because the front arrives later in the day in central and south central and eastern Virginia temperatures warm up. During the morning hours on Thursday in the central Virginia / Richmond area temperatures will be In the low 40s That is different than what will be the case in DC, Philly, or NYC where temperatures will be in the lower or mid 30s Thus when the front when it gets into central and eastern Virginia Thursday afternoon it will probably not be able to produce any snow accumulation
HREF seems reasonable
FRIDAY NIGHT / SATURDAY
I do have to say that I am truly shocked and stunned as a professional meteorologist to see such a violent shift in the weather models from 11pm/12am Tuesday night Wednesday morning to the data this morning and at midday. I have been doing this for more than 25 years and I have to tell you that this shift is dramatic and quite sudden.
When I posted THIS image on the Facebook page and over on the Twitter page at 1230am WED, I felt fairly confident that much of central and eastern VA, eastern NC, and the southern Delmarva was going to see a decent snowstorm with snow amounts ranging anywhere from 4 to 10 inches because of the high snow ratio .
In fact many of the 6 pm and 11pm TV meteorologists in central and southeastern Virginia was talking about the possibility of significant accumulating snow in the Richmond Metro area and interior eastern VA, northeastern NC and Hampton Roads. All you have to do is go to their website and look at their broadcasts on video from last night.
Furthermore, the 3 a.m. discussion from the National Weather Service in Wakefield after seeing the data that I saw, was talking about issuing winter storm watches by Wednesday afternoon and evening valid FOR SATURDAY.
followed WPC`s snow/ice values with this forecast package. Given the above scenario and that the snow/ice accumls only go out thru 12Z Sat, would expect ***winter storm watches to be issued later today for a large part of the local area late Fri thru Sat aftrn ***. Should see higher than 10/1 SLR`s given the arctic airmass as well as some sgnfcnt icing across interior ne NC as well.
The point here is that my optimism and confidence was fairly strong at Wednesday at 1205am that something significant — not a huge snowstorm not a blizzard but significant — was going to hit these areas on Friday night and Saturday.
Then the early morning and midday models came out and the shit went sideways. The operational 6z GFS and Euro models showed no snow of any kind in Richmond on Saturday over 1” and dramatically lowered the snow amounts in southeast VA and northeast NC.
These images show a very nice comparison between what the 0z data showed and what the data at 6z — just 6 hours later — showed. The differences are astounding and speak for themselves.
To say that I am in a state of Shock would be the understatement of the year. Some adjustment from last night’s models which were fairly bullish on the snow and the amount of precipitation the system is going to produce Friday and Saturday, is to be expected. It is NOT expected that the data would go from 0.50” liquid at Richmond to 0.0” only 6 hours later.
Even if we accept today’s data as fact — which I don’t think we should but I will get to that in just a second —there is still going to be significant accumulating snow in southeast VAA and northeast NC Friday night and Saturday. These are areas do not see a lot of snow so even if it is just 4 or 5 or 6 inches, that is still a decent snowfall for those areas and still a big deal. And yes if you are in the Hampton Roads and northeast NC I do think you will probably end up seeing something like 3 to 6 inch of snow in that area. So it is NOT over for your region.
The next question that gets asked is — “well could the models reverse course and shifted precipitation back further closer to the coast and into central and interior eastern Virginia and north-central NC?”
Yes of course the data can shift back and I kind of think it will a little bit. But it might not.
What is even more striking is that all winter long weather hobbyists, meteorologists and the weather community in general have noticed a persistent trend this winter for ALL of the LOW pressure areas in the eastern US to shift to the NW as you get closer to the event. Only this time as we get closer to the event, THERE IS NO NW TREND!
If anything, it is shifting further east. It is very unusual to see a seasonal track or Trend like this come to such an abrupt end, And if you are snow lover in eastern and southeastern VA and N it is rather depressing to suddenly see the northwest trend not show up just when you needed to.
There is a real possibility that the Richmond metro area could see an inch of snow while Hampton Roads and northeast NC see 6 inches of snow. And for the record in case you don’t know this, since the year 2000 there has been more than twice as many 6 inch snowfalls in southeast VA and Hampton Roads than in the Richmond metro area. I know a lot of people in Hampton Roads whine & complain about the lack of snow but the fact is that area since the year 2000, has done substantially better with big snow storms than the Richmond Metro area.
The problem with Richmond is its winter climatology. It is right between two distinctly different winter weather patterns both of which end up screwing over Richmond with respect to snowfall. The reason for this is that weather systems and patterns that produce good snows for central and northeast NC almost always impact Hampton Roads. But they often miss central Virginia and the Richmond metro area which often end up on the northwest side of the LOW, which has the weakest precipitation. On the other hand, weather systems would bring significant snows to northern VA/ DC- BAL into Philly NJ / NYC often track right through central Virginia where are the precipitation is rain or rain and snow mixed.
Not surprisingly all the TV stations in central and eastern VA Wednesday morning and midday have essentially bought this scenario. It is interesting that when the model data shows big snow, the mentality is “wait and see it’s too early and make the call” — which is fine and is the smart play. But when one Model cycle comes out and says it’s out the sea it’s over -BOOM thats the forecast and suddenly the philosophy of wait and see no longer seems to matter.
One final note. As I stated last night on the Twitter page the so-called superiority of the European model — the operational European model and its corresponding associated ensembles — is now gone.
For those of you that don’t know or who are not hardcore weather hobbyists, Fanatics and weenies, the European weather model has for many years earned much deserved reputation of being significantly superior to the American (GFS) weather model. There are many examples of the European model outperforming the GFS with regards to hurricanes and East Coast winter storms. Many examples of it. As a result, the model has a reputation that when it showed a big East Coast winter storm or possible hurricane landfall on the East Coast, between day 3 and day 7 that is a pretty good bet that event is going to happen.
This winter however has been vastly different. The European model has consistently shown these huge winter storms in the eastern US which have never verified or even come close to verifying. 36 hours ago the European model showed a historic snowstorm for central and eastern Virginia into the Delmarva and southern Maryland and a widespread snowfall for the entire Mid-Atlantic from Raleigh to New York City. Now it is s quite possible that nothing will fall whatsoever on Friday or Saturday in these areas.
This is not the case that the European model has been “ off” by just 100 miles with the track a LOW pressure area or a hurricane. And I am not talking about forecasting 35 degrees when it’s actually 40 degrees.
No what I am referring to is that during the past 6 months the Euro has been developing huge East Coast LOWS which don’t even come close to actual reality. The development of these massive precipitation Shields which never show up, tracks of LOW pressure areas which are hundreds of miles off of from reality… 500mb patterns that are dead fooking wrong
Yeah sure the GFS has gotten a lot better and there is no arguing that which is why I said last night that the Euro being the king is dead and is no longer true. But something is actually qualitatively wrong with the ECMWF model. It shouldn’t be this far off all the time with every single LOW pressure area east of the Mississippi River