WHAT’S NEXT ? . THE 3 AMIGOS
Now that the January 21–22 event is over the next concern is what happens on January 24–25. For those who subscribe to the NEXT 3 WEEKS NEWSLETTER, you know that back in early January we talked about 3 threats: JAN 15–16 (nailed it) JAN 22–22 (check) and JAN 24–26.
In fact the overall pattern is so active that there are actually additional chances for significant East Coast winter storms during the next ten days. The dates to watch out for are January 26–27, January 29–30, and February 1–2. So let’s call them the Three Amigos. (Three different LOW pressure areas which each pose a RISK of becoming a significant East Coast winter storm)
That being said let’s be clear about this. There is no certainty or even probability that ANY of these three events will actually develop in such a way to bring any portion of the East Coast a significant East Coast snowstorm.
At this time WxRisk is NOT in any way predicting that any of the three events will actually become a significant East Coast snowstorm. There is no way of knowing at THIS point in time. All the different possibilities are on the table. . We may end up being hit by one of possible LOW pressure areas coming up from the Gulf Coast. Or perhaps two of the three possible LOW pressure areas might become East Coast winter storms. Maybe even all three!! .
Or perhaps none.
The first AMIGO or distinct fairly strong area of LOW pressure coming out of the Gulf Coast will be on January 25th. All of the model data Saturday morning and midday are taking the system across Florida and into the Bahamas. From there it slides off the coast because of another strong reinforcing arctic cold front arrives from the Great Lakes and southern Canada on January 25. Of the 3 Amigos, this one is the weakest and is least likely to impact anybody north of Wilmington North Carolina.
The second AMIGO/ event, JAN 29–30, is much stronger and much more serious. The operational GFS and European models on Thursday January 20th blew up system up into a monster East Coast winter storm with winds over 60 mph on the coast from the Carolinas to Maine and a huge area of 10 to 30 inches of snow from central portions of South Carolina to Maine. This system has shown up on every single model line of the GFS and the European since then. Now some of these model have taken this intense massive LOW well to the east so it doesn’t affect anyone. But other model runs are taken the system Inland along the coast which would bring now for only the Appalachian Mountains and rain for everybody else including the interior portions of the Mid-Atlantic and the coastal areas as well as most of New England. But the last five runs of the operational GFS and the last three runs of the operational European are showing the development of an extremely powerful large dangerous East Coast LOW pressure area on the days of January 29th and 30th.
This could be the storm of the winter but there is no guarantee or certainty that it will be impact any of the coast, be all rain be all snow or some combination. But the signal from the various Global models is quite strong that this system is going to be easily the strongest LOW pressure area on the East Coast so far this winter. Beyond that is all speculation
The FEB 1 system just popped up on the various operational models this morning. In particular the operational GFS shows a number coastal storm on February 1st . The operational GFS model has this system being just a tad too far to the east for the Mid-Atlantic but really pounding the crap out of New England.
One other note about this last 10 days of January. It needs to be pointed out that Atlantic teleconnections or jet stream patterns in North America, are not particularly favorable for East Coast winter snowstorms. The NAO (North American Oscillation) is generally positive which means there is no blocking in Greenland or Northeast Canada. The AO or Arctic oscillation Is rather strongly positive and stays that way until early February when it turns neutral.
On the Pacific side of North America, the two teleconnections there are somewhat more favorable. The EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) is negative which means that the Ridge on the West coast connects to Siberia and the Arctic region pulling down the bitter cold air. And on the West Coast Ridge, the PNA (Pacific North America) pattern is in the positive phase which means that there is a strong Ridge on the West coast helping to pull down the cold air into the central to Eastern CONUS.
In other words what we are saying here is that the teleconnections on the Atlantic side of North America which you want to be set with a negative phase NAO and a negative phase of AO are not ideal for the classic East Coast winter snowstorm. Just something to keep in mind the next 10 days.